Authored by Christopher Okoli- (An Investment Advisor that predicted $25 per barrel of crude oil price in 2012).
By the time you finish reading this article, another fifty families will uncontrollably be speeding into a chronic poverty environment. The sad thing about the families’ gravitational journey into this terrible state is that, the unintended consequences of the actions and inactions (through political gridlocks, treasury lootings, or mismanagement of the resources) of their political leaders are largely responsible for their disenfranchisement into a life that was meant to be enjoyed by the majority. When will the global village end this global vicious cycle of economic and financial madness towards under-developing countries?
How long will the United Nations and the world at large watch as millions of Africans and those in many under-developing countries gravitate towards the uncontrollable highways of chronic poverty altitude? Millions of Africans and people from under-developing countries will unceremoniously depart this world in the upcoming years due to hunger and starvation ignorantly meted out to them by their elected honorable leaders. These leaders continuously mismanage their thin resources, and then go to the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to borrow another set of billions of dollars that they will invariably mismanage again. How much longer will this vicious financial recklessness continue in Africa and other under-developing countries? Chronic corruption breeds chronic poverty, and that is why all the under-developing countries have one thing in common- chronic corruption.
Apart from the ignorant financial leadership of these under-developing countries, the ongoing global currency devaluation wars of the advanced economies are helping to pull down the under-developing economies. In coming years, consumers will probably be paying banks to keep their savings accounts, while banks pays consumers to borrow money from them; unless the increasing negative global yields of the new normal comes to an end. Japan and many European bonds now have negative yields; there is no end in sight unless US Federal starts rising fed fund rate in Dec 2016. Watch as crude oil price skid to $25 per barrel in coming years.
The same technical problems that led to the collapse of the global financial system in the early 1940s are greatly at work now, because the fixed income products of some countries are now swimming in the negative yield territories. The early 1940s Great Depression actually gave birth to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which has been helping to alleviate the pains of financial imbalance in any country that is capable of creating collapsing-like financial crisis. This issue of IMF brings me to ask this question; Has IMF outlived its usefulness? Has IMF been turned into a consuming monster of a problem? One of my professors in my early university years would always say “A solution to a problem will definitely lead to another problem, and the best way to overcome a solved problem is to imagine the things that can possibly go wrong with your new found solution before they occur”. I am fully convinced that the IMF and United Nations officials took their eyes off the word “SOVEREIGNTY” because that is what is increasingly creating another global financial collapse. Sovereignty made it possible for the United Nations, IMF, World Bank and other international bodies to ignore the looting taking place in under-developing countries, despite agonizing weeping for international help.
I would want some great philosophers, theorists, and economic minds to ponder into the crazy idea of “Revisiting or Redefining Sovereignty”, because that is where the problems of under-developing economies are hidden. I am sure that the word ‘madness’ has been redefined to equally mean “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different result.” Corporation and Sovereignty actually have some similarities, and corporations that are slow to react to technological changes have been swallowed up by well managed corporations through merger and acquisitions ,and sometimes aggressive takeovers. Just a crazy idea, but please ponder. Can such be applicable to sovereign countries that are increasingly being mismanaged in these modern days?
Revisiting or Redefining Sovereignty
Sovereignty has encouraged leaders of developing and under-developing countries to loot their treasuries, mismanage and abuse their citizens while the world leaders watches helplessly. Sometimes, few global leaders and the United Nation will bark at such leaders without gallant and meaningful rescue actions. Why are developing and under-developing countries being allowed to get into deplorable states before international help or rescue takes place?
According to Merriam-Webster, sovereignty is defined as an “unlimited power over a country: a country’s independent authority and the right to govern itself.” Word web, an online dictionary app, sovereignty was defined as “a Government free from external control.” Globalization has punctured a deep hole into this definition because most of the under-developing countries are definitely not free from external control.
Anytime there is a serious need to end chronic poverty in this world, the issue of amending sovereignty has to be critically looked at. A global debate that would allow countries that are technically broke to hold a referendum to merge with another willing country or be purchased be the likes of GOOGLE, FACEBOOK, MICROSOFT, AMAZON, etc. that have billions of Dollars lying idle all over the world might surprise the world, just like the BREXIT Vote did. Many distressed and grossly decaying economies like, Venezuela, South Africa, Nigeria, Libya, Sudan, Somalia, etc: can be turned around in a short period of time if global top managers could be allowed to usurp such countries. Who knows, maybe the time for this crazy idea has not yet come, but one thing that I am certain of is, no human being can purge the level of chronic corruption in the under-developing countries without such concrete action. Apple Computers currently has a cash pile up of over $200 billion dollars. Can one imagine how many countries Apple can afford to acquire or merge and turn around with just $10 billion? Citizens of such countries would be more than happy if such actions could put decent food on their tables, after all, humans can be simply happy with the three basic necessities of life.
This is certainly an idea whose time has not come yet, but all I want is to throw it out for great minds to start tearing this idea apart. The few things that are obvious among Americans today are;
Americans will know who their next president will be before the end of November 2016(likely Donald Trump because of Supreme Court control for the next fifty years)
Regardless of the winner of the November 8th 2016 presidential election, fiscal policy will be introduced to help navigate the US economy away from the fast approaching global recession. Will the fiscal policy save the country? Absolutely Not! Because the American economy cannot continue to be the only standing economy in a fast collapsing global economy that is sick of monetary policies that are no longer producing the expected results.
Finally crude oil price will continue to skid towards $25 per barrel because the demand for the usage of crude oil will continue to escalate downward due to solar effects and technological breakthroughs.
God Bless America
Christopher Okoli (Nigerian-American based Investment Advisor) 10/10/2016
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Crude World of Oil, “Africa – Emerging or Tapering Continent”, “African Dilemma” and “Nigerian Promising Era”.